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Anorak | Israel V The Terrorists: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Suicide Attacks And Targeted Killings

Israel V The Terrorists: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Suicide Attacks And Targeted Killings

by | 5th, July 2007

The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings – by David A. Jaeger, Daniele Paserman:

In this paper we assess the effectiveness of suicide attacks and targeted killings in the Second Intifada. We find evidence that the targeted killings of Palestinian leaders by Israel reduce realized Palestinian violence. We find, however, that intended Palestinian violence is increasing at low levels of targeted killings, but decreasing at higher levels. There is little evidence to suggest that suicide bombings against Israelis reduce the number of subsequent Palestinian fatalities. Rather, we find that suicide attacks that kill at least one Israeli lead to subsequent increased incidence and levels of Palestinian fatalities. Our results do not support the notion that suicide attacks and targeted killings follow the “tit-for-tat” pattern that is commonly postulated in the literature.

As this writer notes :

However, although Israeli attacks reduce actual Palestinian violence, they increase intended violence unsuccessful suicide attacks and the like if the attacks are mild. The authors estimate that intended Palestinian violence rises if there are up to 3.3 targeted Israeli killings the previous month, but falls thereafter.
This suggests that

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Posted: 5th, July 2007 | In: News Comment | Follow the Comments on our RSS feed: RSS 2.0 | TrackBack | Permalink