What The Polls Really Say About Obama, McCain And Palin

OBAMA is winning. McCain is winning. Palin bounces like a dead moose. So what;s what?

That change in McCain’s image–or, better, that filling in of McCain’s image–accounts above all for his rise in the polls. Some of the polls have reported massive defections among white women, which they attribute to Sarah Palin’s candidacy, but I don’t believe these are accurate.

I go with Gallup, which saw the greatest change among independents and conservative Democrats. The convention gave independents a reason to vote for McCain and deprived conservative Democrats (who are still anti-Republican) of a reason to vote against him.

What about Palin? I agree with my colleague Noam Scheiber who argues that Palin’s main effect is not to attract new voters to McCain (OK, Alaska is no longer in play), but to attract attention to McCain–beginning with the convention. I expect that by November, as her sheer novelty wears off and as voters focus more on her qualifications, she will have proven to be either of no effect or a liability to McCain.

Polls. Only one result matters…

Anorak

Posted: 11th, September 2008 | In: Barack Obama, John McCain, Politicians, Race For The White House, Sarah Palin, Twitterings Comment | Follow the Comments on our RSS feed: RSS 2.0 | TrackBack | Permalink