Greenspan Was Wrong 40 Per Cent Of The Time
THE mighty are falling like flies today; Goldman, the hedge funds and now Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, grilled by the House Government Oversight Committee on the touchy topic of why the laisser faire financial markets he had lauded for so long turned out to have all the buoyancy of a lead balloon.
Smooth Jimmy Apollo: [explaining his poor prediction]
Well, folks, when you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time.
Posted: 23rd, October 2008 | In: Twitterings Comments (8) | Follow the Comments on our RSS feed: RSS 2.0 | TrackBack | Permalink
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October 25th, 2008 at 4:23 am
when you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mr4aYcHUOY
of course the rest of this sequence (not included in the video) is somewhat representative of the credit crisis as well — you have the “experts” giving opposite opinions, and the nerdy quant guy trying to program a computer to make predictions based on historical data, only to see the computer output something completely unreasonable
October 24th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Hi John,
I meant to ask how long you have lived in Brazil, bit late now, but I”ll catch up with you again some time I expect.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Greenspan wrong 40 per-cent of the time? Yes, but he would probably brag that he was RIGHT 60 per-cent of the time! Another “expert”.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Not just the Americans; he was regarded with reverence here too.
Presumably they will be just as shocked as he was to discover something could go wrong…
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:56 pm
He was a very slow and boring speaker and really didn”t make much sense, yet the
Americans hung on his every word, I could never understand why.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:39 pm
He has a large degree of personal responsibility for the 24 carat cock-up; his statement today that he was ’shocked’ to discover that he had been wrong suggests that he slept through the whole Savings and Loans’ debacle in the 1980s.
How else did he manage to ignore it, in claiming that he thought the last 40 years had proved that nothing would go wrong?
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Remember the “irrational exuberance” remark Greenspan made ? Not long after
the market crashed. He was treated as having the wisdom of Solomon when in fact
he knew b***er all.!!!!! How do these people get into such positions of power, makes you wonder.
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Greenspan thought deregulation would bring a self governess in the banking system. These greedy CEO’s were supposed to police each other, not con each other. Deregulation bought out the worst of Wall Street, and America was pillaged. This greed and neglect of self governess have bought on the worst financial storm that the world has ever faced. Once the dust settles, America should band together and bring on a class action suit against the actions of these CEO’s. According to Greenspan, “believed lending institutions would do a good job of protecting their shareholders” instead, they profited, jump ship and left the American tax payers holding the bag
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M&A
Artemis