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Anorak | Well, Greece is screwed whichever way it turns

Well, Greece is screwed whichever way it turns

by | 23rd, May 2012

greece Well, Greece is screwed whichever way it turnsLOOKS like any which way Greece tries to turn it’s screwed. If they try and stay in the euro then they’re screwed by a decade or more of this internal devaluation, this austerity. Things would get better if they leave, after the horrible shock of actually leaving.

However, the latest wargaming over the issue shows the following:

Greece may have only a 46-hour window of opportunity should it need to plot a route out of the euro.

That’s how much time the country’s leaders would probably have to enact any departure from the single currency while global markets are largely closed, from the end of trading in New York on a Friday to Monday’s market opening in Wellington, New Zealand, based on a synthesis of euro-exit scenarios from 21 economists, analysts and academics.

Over the two days, leaders would have to calm civil unrest while managing a potential sovereign default, planning a new currency, recapitalizing the banks, stemming the outflow of capital and seeking a way to pay bills once the bailout lifeline is cut. The risk is that the task would overwhelm any new government in a country that has had to be rescued twice since 2010 because it couldn’t manage its public finances.

Err, right, yes. The possibility that any Greek Government could actually manage this is pretty much zero, isn’t it? For that’s pretty much the thing that brought us to this pretty pass: the Greek Government just isn’t competent.

It’s all getting a bit like trying to get to Dublin, isn’t it? It’s undoubtedly possible but you almost certainly don’t want to be starting from here.



Posted: 23rd, May 2012 | In: Money Comment | Follow the Comments on our RSS feed: RSS 2.0 | TrackBack | Permalink