I have written an awful lot on credit default swaps, those miracles of financial engineering, claimed by Alan Greenspan to have almost eliminated risk from the financial markets, but I felt I should mention that tomorrow is the day when the outstanding credit default swaps on Lehman Brothers are due for settlement.
We know that the auction settled the payment of 91.375 cents for each dollar of protection purchased on Lehman Brothers bonds.
What we don't know is precisely how many billions are out there, nor who is in the hole for them.
It could be a vast number, up to $400 billion, or a mere $60 billion. The gains could be concentrated in a few hands or spread widely. That's the joy of huge, unregulated markets; no one knows what the f*ck is going on.
So, just in case it really is the end of the financial world tomorrow, I thought I'd say goodbye, and thanks for all the bandwidth.
And leave you with the comforting thought that if we survive settlement tomorrow we have the credit default swaps on Washington Mutual and the Icelandic banks coming up...
