Old Moore’s Almanack predicted right on Obama, Savile and Gaza
PERIODICALLY I dip into Old Moore’s Almanack – the astrology annual that’s been going since 1697. In between the awful ads that recur year after year and comic book line drawings, ‘Dr Francis Moore’ can still deliver on the forecasts.
Take the 2012 edition, for instance. This was published in around June/July 2011. So, its mundane (or world) forecasts will have been put together at the latest in early 2011 (Dr Moore’s editorial letter is actually dated October 2010).
And still, the outcome of the US election is correctly predicted. ‘The Democrats enter the race as the favourites,’ he writes, ‘and the result does not point to major change.’ And in its World Affairs review, Moore writes: ‘This does not favour a Republican victory.’
All this long before Nate Silver came along and impressed us with his spot-on predictive maths.
Interestingly, for November 2012, Moore foresees issues over children’s rights and protection – prefiguring perhaps the Savile scandal. And for October, he predicts Palestinian attacks on Israel: give or take a few days or weeks, this is also accurate.
The point to remember is when these forecasts were made. Moore can’t be accused of following polls or pundits.